This work has
been revised updated in:
The Theory
of Interest:
Robertson versus Keynes
and
The Long-Period Problem of Saving
Copyright, 1983-2017
All Rights Reserved
A Note on Keynes’ General Theory of Employment,
Interest, Money, and Prices*
(4/26/2016)
Contents
I. The Simple Dynamics of Supply and Demand.
4
II. The Marshallian Roots of Keynes’ General Theory.
6
III. Implicit
Adjustment Equations in Keynes' General Theory
IV. The Structure of Keynes’ General Equilibrium Model
9
V. The Structure of Keynes’ Aggregate Model
10
VI. Summary and Conclusion.
13
References.
15
Endnotes.
16
Abstract
The basic aggregate model summarized
by Keynes in Chapter 18 of The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and
Money is derived from the implicit general equilibrium model that
underlies Keynes’ general theory. It is argued that when these models are
viewed from the perspective of the simple dynamics of supply and demand it
becomes clear that the methodology of Keynes is Marshallian rather than
Walrasian and that this makes Keynes’ methodology causal and dynamic whereas
the Walrasian methodology is, at best, descriptive and incapable of meaningful
causal or dynamic analysis.
Keynes did not present his general theory as a
system of simultaneous equations. That was done by J. R. Hicks,
A. H. Hansen, P. A. Samuelson, D.
Patinkin, and countless other Keynesians. Their approach was Walrasian, and as
a result of their efforts a Walrasian revolution in the name of Keynes took
place in economics following Keynes’ publication of The General Theory of
Employment, Interest, and Money. [Clower;
Leijonhufvud] This
revolution took Keynes’ name in spite of the fact that Keynes was a protégé
of Marshall, not Walras. Keynes emphatically rejected the kind of mathematical
approach embraced by the Walrasians that ignore the problems imposed by
empirical reality:
The object of our analysis is, not to provide a machine, or method of
blind manipulation, which will furnish an infallible answer, but to provide
ourselves with an organized and orderly method of thinking out particular
problems; and, after we have reached a provisional conclusion by isolating
the complicating factors one by one, we then have to go back on ourselves
and allow, as well as we can, for the probable interactions of the factors
amongst themselves. This is the nature of economic thinking. Any other way
of applying our formal principles of thought (without which, however, we
shall be lost in the wood) will lead us into error. It is a great fault of
symbolic pseudo-mathematical methods of formalizing a system of economic
analysis . . . that they expressly assume strict independence between the
factors involved and lose all their cogency and authority if this hypothesis
is disallowed; whereas, in ordinary discourse, where we are not blindly
manipulating but know all the time what we are doing and what the words
mean, we can keep ‘at the back of our heads’ the necessary reserves and
qualifications and the adjustments which we shall have to make later on,
in a way in which we cannot keep complicated partial differentials ‘at the
back’ of several pages of algebra which assume that they all vanish [emphasis
added]. Too large a proportion of recent ‘mathematical’ economics are merely
concoctions, as imprecise as the initial assumptions they rest on, which
allow the author to lose sight of the complexities and interdependencies of
the real world in a maze of pretentious and unhelpful symbols.” [Keynes
(1936, p. 297-8)]
This is the methodology of Marshall, not of
Walras, and Keynes spent his entire life applying this methodology in an
attempt to discover the causal relationships that drive the economic system
through time. In so doing, among many other things, it became clear to him
that 1) the ultimate justification for production is to satisfy the demands of
consumers, 2) the true causal variables in a market economy in which
the processes of production take time are expectations with regard to the
future, 3) rates of interest are a purely monetary phenomena determined by the
supply and demand for liquidity as the prices of assets adjust to equate
wealth-holder demands for assets to the existing stocks of assets, 4) monetary
policy is limited in its ability to stimulate the economy by the propensities
of wealth holders with regard to their demands for liquidity, 5) once rates of
interest have reached the lower bounds set by the propensities of wealth
holders the level of economic activity is determined by the propensity to
consume and the demand for investment goods, and 6) since the demand for
investment goods is ultimately determined by expectations with regard to
future consumption, and since expectations with regard to future consumption
are largely determined by current consumption, the level of economic activity
must be largely determined by current consumption and, ultimately, by the way
in which current consumption changes over time. [See Blackford (2016)]
Even though these arguments and this conclusion
stand at the very core of Keynes’ general theory [Blackford (2016)], this
way of looking at the economic system was not taught or even acknowledged in
graduate schools when I was in academia, and I suspect is not taught
or acknowledged in graduate schools to this day. Instead, graduate students
were taught the Walrasian paradigm with tâtonnement/recontract dynamics
while the Marshallian paradigm from which the dynamics of Keynes is drawn was
pretty much ignored other than in undergraduate courses.
It is obvious, or at least it should be obvious,
that something is wrong here. In point of fact, neither households nor firms
are constrained in their choices in the real world by a Walrasian budget
constraint at the points in time at which a choice must be made. They are
constrained by a) the value and liquidity of their assets, b) the availability
of sellers of goods at various prices, c) the availability of buyers of goods
at various prices, and d) in their access to credit. They have no choice but
to be guided by their expectations with regard to the future, as Keynes
insisted, but they are not constrained in the present by what actually
happens in the future. The rate at which decision-making units receive
income at the point in time at which a decision must be made has no way of
affecting that decision other than through its effect on expectations as any
consumer who has ever purchased a home, a car, or has simply walked the aisles
of a supermarket knows implicitly, and as any businessman who has ever had to
meet a payroll knows implicitly as well. These are simple, empirical facts,
and yet the Walrasian budget constraint presupposes a) that all prices,
quantities, and incomes are known at the time a choice must be made, b) that
all choices are made simultaneously, and c) that those choices are constrained
by income. This sort of thing can correspond to actual behavior only in a
world in which expectations are always realized and markets always clear, that
is, when the system is in static equilibrium. [Clower] The Walrasian
budget constraint has no relevance at all when the system is not in static
equilibrium. [Blackford (1975;
1976)] There is no mystery about this. It is well known that Walrasian
dynamics is empirically irrelevant by virtue of its reliance on the mythical
auctioneer of the Walrasian tâtonnement/recontract assumption. [Jaffe]
The real mystery is why so many economists have
invested so much time and energy over the years trying to prove that Keynes is
wrong as they ignore Marshall and attempt to force Keynes into a Walrasian
mold. This is especially so in view of the fact that virtually nothing Keynes
actually said in The General Theory makes sense when viewed from the
perspective of the Walrasian paradigm and can only be understood from the
perspective of Marshall.
The purpose of this note is to explain the
methodology used by Keynes throughout The General Theory in terms of
the simple dynamics of supply and demand on which it is based—a dynamics that
has been taught, I believe, in every principles course in economics throughout
the world for well over one hundred years—and to contrast this methodology
with that embodied in the Walrasian paradigm. It is hoped that by highlighting
the fundamental difference between these two methodologies it might make it
possible for economists to better understand the nature of Keynes’ general
theory, and, even more important, to better understand how the economic system
actually works so as to make mainstream economic theory more empirically
relevant.
The simple dynamics of supply and demand is
generally explained in terms of a partial-equilibrium analysis of a
competitive market characterized by an upward sloping supply schedule and
downward sloping demand schedule as shown in the diagram in Figure 1—a diagram
that any student who has taken a principles of economics class should
recognize immediately and understand implicitly.
It illustrates a situation in which a market begins
with an equilibrium price P and quantity Q as determined by the intersection
of the initial supply schedule S and demand schedules D and then experiences a
ceteris paribus increase in supply that shifts the supply schedule from
S to S’. This results in an excess supply at the original equilibrium price
equal to the difference between Q and Q” which is the quantity in excess of
the amount suppliers are willing to sell over the amount buyers are willing to
buy at the original market price P. Since this is a competitive market we can
expect suppliers to attempt to increase their output at the original price P
and competition among suppliers and demanders to bid down the market price in
an attempt to increase their sales and purchases. This competition will, in
turn, cause the price to fall and cause the quantity produced
and sold in the market to increase until the new equilibrium price P’ and
quantity Q’ are achieved at the intersection of the initial demand curve D and
the new supply curve S’. At this price and quantity, and only at this price
and quantity, will it be possible for suppliers to sell all they are willing
to sell and demanders to purchase all they are willing to purchase, and there
is no reason for the market price or quantity produced and exchanged in the
market to change.
This example of the simple dynamics of supply and
demand assumes a competitive market, but even if the market is not competitive
we can still use the methodology of this example to examine the cause
and effect implications of the various kinds of noncompetitive
phenomena with which we are confronted as anyone who has taken an
undergraduate intermediate microeconomics class well knows. In addition, since
all of the non-price factors that affect the willingness to buy and sell are
assumed to be subsumed in the functional form of the supply and demand
schedules, the usefulness of this methodology is not limited to a single
market in a ceteris paribus situation. This simple paradigm can be
used to analyze the effects of the price and quantity changes in the given
market on other markets (e.g., the markets for substitutes and compliments)
and the feedback effects on the given market from the subsequent price and
quantity changes in those other markets, ad infinitum, if one wishes, until a
short-run or general equilibrium is reached. Even when the assumptions
underlying the analysis are not strictly met, the overall contribution of the
metaphorical application of this kind of analysis to the understanding of
practical economic problems is such that it is an indispensable part of the
economist’s way of thinking. One might even say: “This is the nature of
economic thinking.” In any event, this was the nature of Keynes’ thinking as
he wrote The General Theory.
It is my view that the methodology
embodied in the simple example presented in Figure 1 is the single most
powerful analytical tool available to economists as a guide to understanding
how the economic system works. There are two reasons for this:
First, this methodology
explains the determination of prices and quantities and what will cause
prices and quantities to change in terms of the behavior of those
decision-making units—suppliers and demanders—who actually have the power to
determine and change the prices and quantities bought and sold in the market.
Second, since there must be a
change in either supply or demand before a change in price or quantity
can occur within this methodology it is possible to examine individual markets,
prices, and quantities in sequential order which makes it is possible to establish the
temporal order in which events must occur.
These two characteristics of the simple supply
and demand methodology make it possible to separate cause and effect and, thus, to provide a causal explanation
of dynamic behavior within this context.
The situation is fundamentally different within
the context of the Walrasian paradigm. Since everything is assumed to change
simultaneously if anything changes, it is impossible to establish the temporal
order in which events must occur within this paradigm. As a result, it is only
possible to provide a mythical analysis of dynamic behavior within the
context of the Walrasian paradigm by way of the mythical auctioneer of
the tâtonnement/recontract assumption.
In writing his Treatise on Money Keynes
discovered that it is impossible to provide a logically consistent,
causal explanation of the way in which the rate of interest would change
in response to a change in the saving or investment schedule in a ceteris
paribus situation in which income and the supply and demand for money are
given. That meant that it was not enough to know what was happening to the
saving and investment schedules to be able to predict what would happen to the
rate of interest. He also had to know what was happening to income and the
supply and demand for money because in the absence of a change in income or
the supply or demand for money there was no way to explain why the rate of
interest would change. What this meant was that he could not use the
simple methodology of supply and demand to give a causal explanation of
how the rate of interest was determined or to establish the temporal order in
which events must occur with regard to the rate of interest if he assumed that
the rate of interest is determined by savers and investors. At the same time
he discovered that there is a reason for the rate of interest to change in a
ceteris paribus situation in which income and the supply of
money are given if there is a change in “hording,” that is, if there is a
change in the demand for money. [See Keynes (1930, pp. 145-6); and Blackford (1983;
1986;
1987;
2016)]
In pursuing this problem on the way to his
general theory Keynes came to realize that, unlike the case for savers and
investors, it is possible to give a logically consistent, causal
explanation of the way in which suppliers and demanders for money change the
rate of interest in a ceteris paribus situation in response to a change
in the supply or demand for money. Thus, Keynes concluded that the only way to
make sense out of saving, investment, income, and the rate of interest in
terms of cause and effect that establishes the temporal order
in which events must occur is to assume that the rate of interest is
determined by the supply and demand for money and that investment is
determined by supply and demand in the markets for investment goods. [See Blackford (1983;
1986;
1987;
2016)] The relevance of these conclusions to Keynes’
general theory can be seen by specifying the kinds of dynamic market
adjustment equations that are implicit in the idea that the rate of interest
is determined by the supply and demand for money and that investment is
determined by the supply and demand in the markets for investment goods.
III.
Implicit Adjustment Equations in Keynes' General Theory
In specifying the market adjustment equations
implicit in the assumption that the rate of interest is determined by the
supply and demand for money it is assumed that the rate at which suppliers and
demanders for money interact to adjust the rate of interest (R) to equate the
quantities of money supplied and demanded (Ms and Md) is
a function of the excess demand for money (Md – Ms):
(1) dR = f r(Md
– Ms),
and that
suppliers and demanders of money interact in such a way as to adjust the
actual stock of money in existence (M) toward the short side of the market,
that is, toward the quantity demanded when there is a surplus and toward the
quantity supplied when there is a shortage:
0F[1]
(2) dM = f m(Md
– M) if Md ≤ Ms
= f m(Ms – M)
if Md > Ms,
where dR and dM denote the
time derivative operator d (=d/dt) applied to R and M,
respectively, and the functions f r and f m
(as well as the time derivative functions specified below) are assumed to
increase monotonically through the origin. Equations (1) and (2) simply
formalize the idea that when Md and Ms are not equal to
M, demanders and suppliers in the money markets will interact in such a way as
to cause R to adjust so as to reduce the difference between the supply
and demand for money and cause M to adjust toward the short side of the
market.
In specifying
the market-adjustment equations implicit in Keynes’ second conclusion, that
investment is determined by the supply and demand for investment goods in the
markets for investment goods, it is assumed that the rate at which suppliers
and demanders for investment goods adjust the price of investment goods (Pi)
to equate the quantities supplied (Is) and demanded (Id)
is a function of the excess demand for investment goods (Id - Is):
(3) dPi = f
pi(Id - Is),
and that suppliers and demanders of investment
goods adjust the actual rate of investment (I) toward the short side of the
market:
(4) dI = f i(Id – I) if Id
≤ Is
= f i(Is – I) if Id
> Is.
Again, this specification simply states that,
when Id and Is are not equal to I, demanders and
suppliers in the investment-goods markets will interact in such a way as to
cause Pi to adjust to reduce the difference between the supply
and demand for investment goods and will cause I to adjust toward the
short side of the market.
Next we assume that the suppliers and demanders
for labor in the investment-goods industries adjust wages in those industries
(Wi) by a function of the difference between the supply and demand
for labor in the investment-goods industries (Nis and Nid)
and the actual level of employment in those industries (Ni) toward
the short side of the market:
(5) dWi = f
wi(Nid - Nis)
(6) dNi = f
ni(Nid – Ni) if Nid
≤ Nis
= f ni(Nis – Ni)
if Nid > Nis.
Having specified (1) through (6) all that is
needed to complete the model is to specify a comparable set of adjustment
equations for the consumer-goods industries:
(7) dPc = f
pc(Cd - Cs)
(8) dC = f c(Cd
– C) if Cd ≤ Cs
= f c(Cs – C)
if Cd > Cs
(9) dWc = f
wc(Ncd – Ncs)
(10) dNc = f
nc(Ncd – Nc)
if Ncd ≤ Ncs
= f
nc(Nc
– Ncs) if Ncd >
Ncs.
where the form of (7) through (10) is identical
to that of (3) through (6), the only difference being the substitution of the
c and C notation in (7) through (10) for the i and I notation in equations (3)
through (6) to indicate that the corresponding adjustment equations refer to
the consumer-goods markets rather the
investment-goods markets.
The adjustment equations (1) - (10) define the
way in which changes in the endogenous variables of the model are determined
in five markets: money, investment goods, investment-goods labor, consumer
goods, and consumer-goods labor. Since these adjustment functions are assumed
to increase monotonically through the origin, the system is in equilibrium in the sense that
there is no reason for any variable to change when all of the independent
variables in (1) – (10) are equal to zero. This gives us five markets with ten
equilibrium conditions which contain ten behavioral variables and ten
endogenous variables as summarized in Table 1.
This table shows the mathematical structure of
the general equilibrium model that underlies Keynes’ general theory. Since the
behavioral variables in this model are quantities supplied and demanded,
economic theory tells us they are functions of all of the endogenous
variables. Thus, if the set of Marshallian supply and demand equations that
define the behavioral variables in this model are well behaved (a rather
heroic assumption within this context given the fact that the purpose of
The General Theory is to explain why this set of equations is not
that well behaved) the supply and demand equations which define the quantities
supplied and demanded can presumably be substituted into the equilibrium
conditions and solved for the endogenous variables in terms of the exogenous
variables. Thus, all of the equilibrium values of the endogenous variables in
this model are, in principle, determined within this system by the behavioral
relationships embodied in the supply and demand equations implicit in Table 1.
The fundamental difference between the structure
of this model and that of the Walrasian paradigm taught in graduate schools is
that the behavioral equations of this model are assumed to be Marshallian
supply and demand functions rather than Walrasian supply and demand
functions. Marshallian supply and demand functions are derived from the
presumed optimizing behavior of decision-making units as they interact in
markets, just as Walrasian supply and demand functions are derived. The
difference is that the Marshallian functions are derived in a way that
attempts to isolate those factors that have a direct influence on the choices
of decision-making units without assuming these choices are constrained by an
arbitrarily defined Walrasian budget constraint. They are derived by observing
the actual choices available to decision-making units in markets,
hypothesizing with regard to the motivations of these units, and then
reasoning through the logical implications of what the actual choices
available to decision-making units and their motivations imply with regard to
their willingness to buy and sell. [see Marshall and Keynes and cf. Clower and
Blackford (1975;
1976)]
Keynes provided a summary of the given factors
and independent and dependent variables in the analytical framework he
developed throughout The General Theory at the beginning of Chapter 18
and then summarized the basic form of the short-run, aggregate model embodied
in this framework:
Thus we can sometimes regard our ultimate independent variables as
consisting of (i) the three fundamental psychological factors, namely, the
psychological propensity to consume, the psychological attitude to liquidity
and the psychological expectation of future yield from capital-assets, (2)
the wage-unit as determined by the bargains reached between
employers and employed, and (3) the quantity of money as determined by the
action of the central bank; so that, if we take as given the factors
specified above, these variables determine the national income (or dividend)
and the quantity of employment. But these again would be capable of being
subjected to further analysis, and are not, so to speak, our ultimate atomic
independent elements. [Keynes (1936, p. 246-7)]
Since Keynes’ aggregate model makes use of only
two measures of quantity—money and the labor-unit defined as “an hour's
employment of ordinary labour” where he assumes that special labor is paid in
proportion to its productivity relative to ordinary labor [Keynes (1936,
p.41)]—we can specify the dynamic adjustment mechanisms of Keynes’ general
theory that apply to the elementary aggregate model described in this
paragraph in terms of these units, first by specifying the aggregate real
income (output) measured in the wage-unit (Yw) by dividing the
individual values of consumption goods (PcC)
and investment goods (PiI)
produced in Table 1 by the wage-unit (W) then summing to obtain:
(11) Yw =
PcC/W +
PiI/W
= Cw + Iw.
We can then specify the aggregate demand for
output (Ydw) in terms of the aggregate demand for consumption goods
(Cdw) and investment goods (Idw), all measured in
wage-units, as being given by:
(12) Ydw = Cdw + Idw
Next we must add Keynes’ aggregate consumption
function:
(13) Cdw = cd(Yw)
0 < cd’
< 1,
which embodies “the psychological propensity to
consume” and his investment demand function:
(14) Idw = id(R)
id’
< 0,
which embodies “the psychological expectation of
future yield from capital-assets.”
The “the psychological attitude to liquidity” is
embodied in Keynes’s liquidity preference function implicit in the general
equilibrium model outlined in Table 1, that is, is embodied in the function
that defines the demand for money measured in wage units (mdw).
We can specify this function in terms of wage-units as:
(15) Mdw = mdw(R)
mdw’ < 0,
where Mdw is the quantity of money
demanded measured in wage-units.
There are four endogenous aggregate variables (YW,
CW, IW, and R) to be determined in this model in terms
of the given “independent variables.” The dynamic adjustment equations for
these four variables that are implicit in Keynes’ general theory are given by:
(16) dYw = fy(Ydw
- Yw)
(17) dCw = fc(Cdw
- Cw)
(18) dIw = fi(Idw
- Iw)
(19) dR = fr(Mdw
- Mw),
where Mw is “the quantity of money as
determined by the action of the central bank” measured in wage-units.
As with the
general equilibrium model specified above, the adjustment equations (16) -
(19) define the way in which changes in the endogenous variables of the model
are determined, except that here we are examining only four aggregate markets:
money, investment goods, consumer goods, and the aggregate of the investment
and consumer goods markets. Again, since these adjustment functions are
assumed to increase monotonically through the origin, the system is in equilibrium in the sense
that there is no reason for any variable to change when all of the independent
variables in (16) – (19) are equal to zero. This gives us four markets with
four equilibrium conditions which contain four behavioral variables and four
endogenous variables as summarized in Table 2.
2[3]
This table shows the mathematical structure of
the basic short-run aggregate model described by Keynes in the passage quoted
above, and since the behavioral variables in this model are functions of the
aggregated quantities supplied and demanded (measured in wage-units) in the
underlying general equilibrium model, economic theory tells us that the
aggregate quantities supplied and demanded are functions of the set of
endogenous variables. Thus, if the set of aggregate equations that define the
behavioral variables in this model are well behaved the supply and demand
equations which define the quantities supplied and demanded can presumably be
substituted into the equilibrium conditions and solved for the endogenous
variables in terms of the exogenous variables. Thus, all of the equilibrium
values of the endogenous variables in this model are, in principle, determined
within this system by the behavioral relationships defined by the aggregate
equations given by equations (12) through (15).
Since the behavioral variables and adjustment
equations in this aggregate model are derived from the behavioral variables
and adjustment equations of the general equilibrium model it is possible to
apply the same simple methodology of supply and demand to establish the
temporal order in which events must occur within the aggregate model outlined
in Table 2 that applies to the general equilibrium model outlined in Table 1.
This makes it possible to undertake a causal analysis of dynamic
behavior within context of the aggregate model, just as in the general
equilibrium model, “by isolating the complicating factors one by one” and then
going “back on ourselves and allow[ing], as well as we can, for the probable
interactions of the factors amongst themselves” which is what Keynes did with
this basic aggregate model in excruciating detail throughout The General
Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.
When viewed
from the prospective of the simple dynamics of supply and demand, the
structure of the models outlined in Tables 1 and 2 provides a logically
consistent framework within which it is possible to examine the fundamental
questions of economics that Keynes addressed in The General Theory with
regard to how the economic system functions and why it fails to function in
the way mainstream economists believe it should function—the kind of analysis
that is empirically relevant to the kinds of economic problems we actually
face in the real world. These models also provide a logically consistent
framework in which a general theory can be developed in that they not only
include the monetary sector of the economy, but, at the same time, all prices
and quantities are determined by way of the fundamental constructs of supply
and demand which lies at the core of Marshall’s theory of value. And the key
to the structure of this framework is Keynes’ insight with regard to the
fact that the rate of interest is a purely monetary phenomenon,
causally determined by the supply and demand for money, not by saving and
investment.
3F[4]
Keynes achieved this insight through the
methodology of Marshall, namely, by observing the actual choices available to
decision-making units in markets, hypothesizing with regard to the motivations
of those units, and reasoning through the logical implications of what the
available choices and motivations imply with regard to the determination of
prices and quantities that are actually observed in markets. He did not
achieve this insight by creating abstract mathematical models of
representative households and firms in the Walrasian tradition and then
attributing the properties of the part to the whole. And it is worth
reemphasizing here that the methodology Keynes applied to the models
summarized in Tables 1 and 2 is causal and dynamic, not simply
because the model is derived from an abstract specification of dynamic
adjustment mechanisms, but because these mechanisms are defined in terms of
the fundamental Marshallian concepts of quantities supplied and quantities
demanded. This makes it possible to use the simple methodology of supply and
demand to establish the temporal order in which events must occur and, thus,
to provide a causal analysis of dynamic behavior in terms of the choices of
those decision-making units that actually have the power to effect that
behavior both when the system is in equilibrium and when it is not. [cf.
Clower and Blackford (1975;
1976)]
When the models outlined in Tables 1 and 2 are
viewed from the perspective of the Walrasian paradigm—all prices and
quantities always known, expectations always realized, markets always in
equilibrium—the result is an analytic framework that is, at best, descriptive,
static, and incapable of meaningful causal or dynamic analysis. When viewed
from the perspective of the Marshallian paradigm the result is an analytic
framework in which a logically consistent, causal analysis of dynamic
behavior is possible, the kind of causal analysis of dynamic behavior
undertaken by Marshall throughout his Principles of Economics and by
Keynes throughout The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money.
This methodology may not be mathematically
elegant, which undoubtedly accounts for its lack of appeal to academic
economists, but it does make it possible to separate cause and
effect and to establish the temporal order in which events must
occur. Not only did this make it possible for Keynes to create a general
theory in which a logically consistent, causal explanation as to how
the economic system works is possible, it made it possible for Keynes to
provide a logically consistent, causal explanation of the Great
Depression, something the economic theories of the mainstream economists of
his time were unable to do, constrained as they were by their belief that the
rate of interest is determined by savers and investors. And it is worth noting
that Keynes’ theory not only made it possible to provide a logically
consistent, causal explanation of the Great Depression, it also makes
it possible to provide a logically consistent, causal explanation of
the Great Recession we are in the midst of today, something the economic
theories of the mainstream economists of our time are unable to do,
constrained as they are by their belief that decision-making units are
constrained by a Walrasian budget constraint. [see Blackford (1983;
1986;
1987;
2016)]
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, 1983, “Robertson versus Keynes: A Reevaluation,”
unpublished paper,
available on request.
, 1986, “A Note on Tsiang’s Interpretation of Robertson’s
Theory of Interest,” unpublished paper,
available on request.
, 1987, “A Note on Liquidity Preference, Loanable Funds,
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available on request.
, 2013, “Ideology Versus Reality,”
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, 2014, Where Did All The Money Go? How Lower Taxes,
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*
I would like to thank Gillian G. Garcia for her insightful and critical
comments that have helped immensely to clarify the issues for me. I would also like to thank David
Glasner for his knowledgeable, patient, and open-minded responses to my
comments on his blog, responses that motivated me to attempt to resurrect
the research I had done in the nineteen seventies and eighties and bring
it up to date as best I can. The result is this note and the
Blackford (2016) paper. And then there is my sister,
Kathryn J. Ross, and wife, Dolores M. Coulter, to whom I am deeply
indebted for their relentless efforts to dismantle my run-on sentences and
force me to abide by the rules of grammar and spelling. Finally, I welcome
this opportunity to express my deepest appreciation to the mentors I have
had over the years: Mrs. Shegus, Mrs. Lockner, Miss Fortiner, Neil Cason,
Charles Shinn, Joseph T. Davis, William H. Whitemore, Barbara and Robert
Anderlik, Frank Jackson, William M. Armstrong, Florence A. Kirk, Louis R.
Miner, Louis Toller, Alfred C. Raphelson, Elston W. Van Steenburgh, Paul
G. Bradley, Virgil M. Bett, W. H. Locke Anderson, Daniel B. Suits, Kenneth
E. Boulding, Saul H. Hymans, Mitchell Harwitz, Cliff L. Lloyd, Ray Boddy,
James Crotty, Winston Chang, and Nagesh S. Revankar. Each of these
individuals has had a profoundly positive influence on my life, and I will
be indebted to each forever.
[1] There are two dynamic adjustment equations
for each market in this specification, rather than one, because, unlike
the Walrasian paradigm, trading is assumed to take place when R is not at
its equilibrium value, and changes in both R and M must be accounted for.
For ease of exposition and to simplify the notation the investment and
consumer goods markets have been specified as if a homogenous good is
exchanged in each market, but equations (3) - (6) and (7) - (10) can be
thought of as representing any number of individual markets that are
replicated with different functions, prices, and quantities if one wishes
to view these specifications in this way.
[3] The aggregate level of employment is not
included among the independent variables here. Keynes’s assumed the level
of employment is given by the employment function (the inverse of the
aggregate supply function which he does not explain in detail until
Chapter 20) given the level of aggregate demand. [Keynes (1936, Chapter
20)]
[4] “For the rate of interest is, in itself;
nothing more than the inverse proportion between a sum of money and what
can be obtained for parting with control over the money in exchange for a
debt1 for a stated period of time.” [Keynes (1936, p. 167)] It seems to
me that it just doesn’t get any plainer than that. [See Blackford (1983;
1986;
1987;
2016)] Perhaps the obvious should be stated explicitly here,
namely, that Walras’ Law (a law that can only be enforced by a mythical
auctioneer) does not exist in Marshallian economics or in the economics of
Keynes. Nor is it necessary. There are no redundant equations in the
Marshallian system as visualized by Keynes and summarized in Table 1. The
irrelevance of Walras’ Law to Keynes the theory of interest was one of the
central issues of the liquidity-preference/loanable-funds debate that the
participants failed to resolve. [See Blackford (1975;
1976;
1983)]