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Economics

 

George H. Blackford, Ph.D.

 Economist at Large

 Email: george(at)rwEconomics.com

 

It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble.

It’s what you know for sure that just ain't so.
Attributed to Mark Twain (among others)

    

 

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Notes on Herd Immunity and Coronavirus Statistics

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Download Pandemic Statistics

                                   
Index

On Herd Immunity
Updates on Increases In US Fatalities
State Statistics
Country Statistics

On Herd Immunity

South Korea and the United States both confirmed their first case of Covid19 on January 20, 2020 and as of May 14 Korea has suffered 265 deaths as a result of Covid19 and the US 86,912.  This translates into 5 deaths per million for Korea and 265 per million for the United States.  If the United States had been able to obtain Korea's mortality rate of 5 deaths per million the United States would be looking at 1,652 deaths (328.2 x 5) from the Coronavirus rather than the 86,912 deaths we see today, and some 85,260 lives that were lost to the Coronavirus could have been avoided during this period of time. 

South Korea accomplished their control of the Coronavirus by following the standard procedures proscribed by the CDC—hand washing, face masks, testing, contact tracing, quarantining, barring social gatherings, and other kinds of mitigation referred to as 'social distancing'—in the CDC's 2017 Community Mitigation Guidelines to Prevent Pandemic Influenza and in Obama's Playbook for Early Response to High Consequence Emerging Infectious Disease Threats and Biological Incidents that was prepared for and passed on to the Trump administration. 

Following these procedures is exceedingly important in responding to an outbreak of a novel virus that is highly contagious, spreads asymptomatically (that is, spread by people who have no symptoms), has a relatively high mortality rate, and for which there is no effective vaccine or treatment in that it slows the rate of infection within the population.  If the rate of infection is not slowed it threatens to overwhelm the healthcare system which will increase the number of deaths that result from the virus, not only because many of those who become infected will not be able to obtain lifesaving treatment, but because many of those who become ill who are not infected will not be able to receive lifesaving treatment as well.  In addition, once the healthcare system is overwhelmed it will become virtually impossible to protect those individuals who are most vulnerable to the ill effects of this virus to the extent the population as a whole becomes overwhelmed by the disease as well.  In the case of the Coronavirus this last point is of particular importance.

In the absence of an effective vaccine or treatment for the Coronavirus the only way to bring the spread of this disease to an end is through the development of what is referred to as ‘herd immunity’ within the population.  Herd immunity is achieved once a sufficient portion of the population—estimates to range from 40% to 80%—has become infected and, as a result, has received sufficient immunity from the disease upon recovery to prevent the disease from spreading further within the population. 

The seriousness of the Coronavirus pandemic as it relates to the importance of being able to protect the most vulnerable to the ill effects of this disease as the population achieves herd immunity is reflected in the table of case mortality rates in Table I below that shows an average mortality rate of 2.26% of confirmed cases experienced by South Korea during the current pandemic and a breakdown of mortality rates for various age groups from 0.0% to 23.71%.  This table shows fatality rates among Korean Coronavirus victims that are more than twice as high for those over 80 years of age compared to those in their 70s and almost four times as high for those in their 70s compared to those in their 60s. 

 To the extent the Korean fatality rates are applicable to the United States we can estimate the effects of not being able to protect the most vulnerable of our population in the process of achieving herd immunity by applying Korea’s rates to the age distribution of the population of the United States as is done in Table II.  This table shows the number of fatalities that can be expected in the United States to the extent the Korean fatality rates apply if all age groups are infected proportionally in achieving herd immunity (Hd. Im.) through infecting 40%, 60%, or 80% of the population. 

The number of deaths that can be expected if all age groups were to achieve the same degree of infection is calculated in this table by multiplying 40%, 60%, and 80% of each age group in the United States by its corresponding Korean fatality rate in order to achieve the expected number of deaths for each age group .  The individual deaths for each age group are then summed to obtain the total deaths to be expected depending on the extent to which infections must spread in order to achieve herd immunity at 40%, 60%, or 80% of the population.   As can be seen from this table, the total number of deaths to be expected if herd immunity were to be achieved with 40% of the population infected would be 2.6 million (2,605 thousand), with 60% of the population infected would be 3.9 million (3,907 thousand), and with 80% of the population infected would be 5.2 million (5,209 thousand). 

Alternatively, an effort could be made to protect that 3.6% of the population that is 80 years of age or older through isolation and prophylactic testing of all who come in contact with them to the extent necessary to reduce the fatality rate of this age group to 0.0%.  Achieving 40%, 60%, and 80% herd immunity in this situation would require increasing the infection rate of the remaining 96.4% of the population to 41%, 62%, and 83%, respectively.  The results are given in Table III where we find that total number of deaths would be reduced from 2.6 million deaths to 1.5 million with 40% of the population infected, from 3.9 million to 2.3 with 60% of the population infected, and from 5.2 million to 3. 1 million with 80% of the population infected.   Thus, Table III indicates that to the extent the Korean fatality rates apply to the United States’ population protecting the 3.6% of the population that is 80 years of age or older can reduce the toll of the Coronavirus pandemic by as many as 1.3, 1.6, or 2.2 million deaths in the process of achieving herd immunity depending of the degree of infection needed to achieve this end. 

Similarly, the results in Table IV show that protecting the 10.5% of the population that is 70 years of age or older would reduce the total number of deaths from 2.6 million to 652 thousand with 40% of the population infected, from 3.9 million to 971 thousand with 60% of the population infected, and from 5.2 million to 1.3 million with 80% of the population infected.  Thus, Table IV indicates that to the extent the Korean fatality rates apply to the United States’ population protecting the 10.5% of the population that is 70 years of age or older can reduce the Coronavirus toll by as many as 1.95, 2.9, or 3.9 million deaths in the process of achieving herd immunity in the absence of an effective vaccine or treatment. 

 The numbers in these tables are, of course, tentative.  There is no reason to believe they measure what they purport to measure precisely.  There could be any number of Coronavirus cases that existed that were not confirmed in Korea, and there could be any number of Coronavirus deaths that were not identified as such.  In fact, virtually nothing that is known about the Coronavirus is known precisely whether we are talking about infection or fatality rates, the rate at which people become infected, the total number of infections or fatalities, the proportion of the population that must become infected to achieve herd immunity, the extent to which recovery from the illness yields immunity, or how long the immunity once achieved will last.

 Just the same, even if the numbers in Table II are divided in half we still end up with numbers that are ominous; numbers that are from three to six times the number of Americans lost during the four years of World War II (419 thousand).  These numbers clearly indicate that this pandemic must be taken seriously, especially in light of what we have learned, or should have learned from the experience we have had in dealing with this virus so far that is fairly obvious, namely, that:

1.     The Coronavirus is extremely contagious with a relatively high mortality rate that is spread by infected individuals who are asymptomatic, that is, by individuals who are infected but show no symptoms.

2.    Over the course of three months we have already accumulated over 90 thousand Coronavirus deaths in the United States and we were only able to slow the exponential growth of this virus recently by shutting down a major portion of the economy.

3.    Given the novel nature of this virus it is unlikely that a vaccine or effective treatment will be developed and become widely available in the near future.

4.    Because of the highly contagious nature of this virus it is also unlikely that herd immunity will be achieved before a relatively large proportion of the population has been infected.

5.    If the spread of this virus is not controlled until a significant degree of herd immunity is achieved infections will increase exponentially to the effect that it will overwhelm out healthcare system.

6.    If our healthcare system is overwhelmed the deaths that result will be significantly greater than those that would result if the system were not overwhelmed, not simply because many who become infected will be unable to receive effective treatment, but because many of those who become injured or ill who are not infected will also be unable to receive effective treatment.  In addition, if the entire population becomes overwhelmed it will become impossible for many of those who are most vulnerable to the virus to protect themselves from infection.

7.    The only way to control the spread of this virus is through hand washing, wearing masks, social distancing, widespread and frequent testing of essential workers, and contact tracing and testing of all who have had contact with an infected person and quarantining all who test positive. 

8.    To the extent these measures are not implemented systematically and conscientiously throughout the population as we attempt to open up our economy the death toll from the Coronavirus in the United States is going to increase significantly.

In the end, the toll taken by this pandemic will ultimately depend on our ability to slow down the process of achieving herd immunity and how quickly an effective treatment or vaccine can be developed and widely distributed.

Below is a graph that shows the reported daily increases in Coronavirus deaths in the United States from February 29 through May 22 with projections for this series from May 23 through the end of the year that are generated by a simple time series model that assumes the series continues to follow the geometric rate of decrease reflected in the seven-day moving average of the series leading up to May 22.  This graph is followed by a table that summarizes the projections in this graph for the following four weeks and through the end of the year.  It will be interesting to see the extent to which the opening of the economic system that we are in the midst of today affects our ability to follow the geometric trend depicted in this graph as summarized in the table.

Update on Fatalities as of Dec 22, 2020:

 

State Statistics

 

Country Statistics

A few countries that have handled the Pandemic better than the US and the lives that could have been saved as of August 8 10, 2020 if Trump had followed their example and instituted a national pandemic policy.

 

Rankings of countries throughout the world in handling the Coronavirus Pandemic and the lives that could have been saved as of December 20, 2020 if Trump had followed their example and instituted a national pandemic policy.:

Rankings of countries throughout the world in handling the Coronavirus Pandemic and the lives that could have been saved as of July, 2020 if Trump had followed their example and instituted a national pandemic policy.:

 

Data Source: Worldometer (7/10/23)   

Rank

Country

Total

Population (Millions)

Deaths /Million

Times U.S.  Population

Excess U.S. Deaths

Deaths

1

Burundi

38

12.6

3

66

1,167,554

2

DPRK

74

26.0

3

66

1,167,554

3

China

5,272

1,448.5

4

88

1,167,219

4

Chad

194

17.4

11

243

1,164,875

5

South Sudan

138

11.6

12

265

1,164,540

6

Niger

312

26.1

12

265

1,164,540

7

Tajikistan

125

10.0

13

287

1,164,206

8

Benin

163

12.8

13

287

1,164,206

9

Tanzania

846

63.3

13

287

1,164,206

10

Sierra Leone

126

8.3

15

332

1,163,536

11

DRC

1,468

95.2

15

332

1,163,536

12

Nigeria

3,155

216.7

15

332

1,163,536

13

Burkina Faso

396

22.1

18

398

1,162,532

14

CAR

113

5.0

23

508

1,160,857

15

Bhutan

21

0.8

27

597

1,159,518

16

Eritrea

103

3.7

28

619

1,159,183

17

Ivory Coast

835

27.7

30

663

1,158,514

18

Nicaragua

225

6.8

33

729

1,157,509

19

Togo

290

8.7

33

729

1,157,509

20

Guinea

468

13.9

34

751

1,157,175

21

Mali

743

21.5

35

774

1,156,840

22

Ghana

1,462

32.4

45

995

1,153,492

23

Uzbekistan

1,637

34.4

48

1,061

1,152,487

24

Madagascar

1,425

29.2

49

1,083

1,152,153

25

Angola

1,934

35.0

55

1,216

1,150,144

26

Liberia

295

5.3

56

1,238

1,149,809

27

Ethiopia

7,574

120.8

63

1,392

1,147,465

28

Congo

386

5.8

67

1,481

1,146,126

29

Mozambique

2,243

33.1

68

1,503

1,145,791

30

Yemen

2,159

31.2

69

1,525

1,145,456

31

Cameroon

1,974

27.9

71

1,569

1,144,787

32

Papua New Guinea

670

9.3

72

1,591

1,144,452

33

Haiti

860

11.7

74

1,636

1,143,782

34

Uganda

3,632

48.4

75

1,658

1,143,448

35

Somalia

1,361

16.8

81

1,790

1,141,439

36

Guinea-Bissau

177

2.1

86

1,901

1,139,765

37

Timor-Leste

138

1.4

101

2,232

1,134,743

38

Laos

758

7.5

101

2,232

1,134,743

39

Kenya

5,689

56.2

101

2,232

1,134,743

40

Rwanda

1,468

13.6

108

2,387

1,132,399

41

Sudan

5,046

46.0

110

2,431

1,131,729

42

Senegal

1,971

17.7

112

2,476

1,131,060

43

Equatorial Guinea

183

1.5

122

2,697

1,127,712

44

Gabon

307

2.3

132

2,918

1,124,364

45

Malawi

2,686

20.2

133

2,940

1,124,029

46

Pakistan

30,661

229.5

134

2,962

1,123,694

47

Gambia

372

2.6

145

3,205

1,120,011

48

Algeria

6,881

45.4

152

3,360

1,117,668

49

Syria

3,165

19.4

163

3,603

1,113,985

50

Bangladesh

29,463

167.9

175

3,868

1,109,967

51

Comoros

161

0.9

177

3,912

1,109,297

52

Cambodia

3,056

17.2

178

3,934

1,108,963

53

Macao

123

0.7

184

4,067

1,106,954

54

Djibouti

189

1.0

186

4,111

1,106,284

55

Afghanistan

7,933

40.8

195

4,310

1,103,271

56

Venezuela

5,856

29.3

200

4,421

1,101,597

57

Mauritania

997

4.9

203

4,487

1,100,593

58

Zambia

4,062

19.5

209

4,619

1,098,584

59

Solomon Islands

153

0.7

212

4,686

1,097,579

60

Qatar

690

3.0

232

5,128

1,090,883

61

Egypt

24,613

106.2

232

5,128

1,090,883

62

UAE

2,349

10.1

233

5,150

1,090,548

63

Saudi Arabia

9,646

35.8

269

5,946

1,078,495

64

Singapore

1,841

5.9

310

6,852

1,064,768

65

Lesotho

723

2.2

332

7,338

1,057,403

66

Myanmar

19,494

55.2

353

7,802

1,050,372

67

Greenland

21

0.1

369

8,156

1,045,015

68

Zimbabwe

5,709

15.3

372

8,222

1,044,010

69

India

531,913

1,406.6

378

8,355

1,042,002

70

Dominican Republic

4,384

11.1

397

8,775

1,035,640

71

Nepal

12,031

30.2

398

8,797

1,035,306

72

Morocco

16,297

37.8

431

9,526

1,024,257

73

Vietnam

43,206

99.0

437

9,659

1,022,248

74

Kyrgyzstan

2,991

6.7

445

9,836

1,019,570

75

Thailand

34,371

70.1

490

10,830

1,004,503

76

Indonesia

161,879

279.1

580

12,820

974,371

77

Kuwait

2,570

4.4

587

12,974

972,027

78

Philippines

66,499

112.5

591

13,063

970,688

79

Japan

74,694

125.6

595

13,151

969,349

80

Iraq

25,375

42.2

602

13,306

967,005

81

Mongolia

2,179

3.4

645

14,256

952,609

82

El Salvador

4,230

6.6

646

14,278

952,274

83

Iceland

229

0.3

663

14,654

946,582

84

S. Korea

35,111

51.3

684

15,118

939,551

85

Kazakhstan

13,848

19.2

721

15,936

927,163

86

Cuba

8,530

11.3

754

16,666

916,115

87

Belarus

7,118

9.4

755

16,688

915,780

88

Sri Lanka

16,880

21.6

782

17,284

906,740

89

Taiwan

19,005

23.9

796

17,594

902,053

90

Mauritius

1,051

1.3

824

18,213

892,678

91

Australia

21,947

26.1

842

18,611

886,652

92

Oman

4,628

5.3

869

19,207

877,612

93

Bahrain

1,566

1.8

878

19,406

874,599

94

Libya

6,437

7.0

914

20,202

862,546

95

New Zealand

4,567

4.9

932

20,600

856,519

96

Fiji

885

0.9

973

21,506

842,792

97

Azerbaijan

10,285

10.3

999

22,081

834,088

98

Palestine

5,404

5.3

1,011

22,346

830,070

99

Réunion

921

0.9

1,014

22,412

829,065

100

Norway

5,600

5.5

1,016

22,456

828,396

101

Honduras

11,116

10.2

1,088

24,048

804,290

102

Guatemala

20,215

18.6

1,088

24,048

804,290

103

Cyprus

1,364

1.2

1,115

24,645

795,250

104

Malaysia

37,158

33.2

1,120

24,755

793,576

105

Botswana

2,801

2.4

1,147

25,352

784,536

106

Turkey

102,174

85.6

1,194

26,391

768,801

107

Jamaica

3,566

3.0

1,195

26,413

768,466

108

Eswatini

1,427

1.2

1,204

26,612

765,452

109

Albania

3,602

2.9

1,257

27,783

747,708

110

Netherlands

22,992

17.2

1,336

29,529

721,258

111

Israel

12,575

9.3

1,348

29,795

717,240

112

Jordan

14,122

10.3

1,371

30,303

709,540

113

Canada

53,046

38.4

1,382

30,546

705,857

114

Denmark

8,758

5.8

1,501

33,176

666,015

115

Namibia

4,091

2.6

1,553

34,326

648,605

116

Guyana

1,299

0.8

1,636

36,160

620,817

117

Lebanon

10,936

6.7

1,636

36,160

620,817

118

Switzerland

14,452

8.8

1,647

36,403

617,134

119

South Africa

102,595

60.8

1,689

37,332

603,072

120

Iran

146,301

86.0

1,701

37,597

599,054

121

Finland

10,012

5.6

1,802

39,829

565,239

122

Ireland

9,081

5.0

1,809

39,984

562,895

123

Costa Rica

9,402

5.2

1,814

40,095

561,221

124

Hong Kong

13,819

7.6

1,817

40,161

560,217

125

Bolivia

22,392

12.0

1,867

41,266

543,477

126

Luxembourg

1,232

0.6

1,918

42,393

526,401

127

Panama

8,646

4.4

1,944

42,968

517,697

128

Ecuador

36,019

18.1

1,989

43,963

502,630

129

Germany

174,352

83.9

2,078

45,930

472,833

130

Serbia

18,057

8.7

2,087

46,129

469,819

131

Uruguay

7,634

3.5

2,184

48,273

437,343

132

Estonia

3,001

1.3

2,270

50,173

408,550

133

Sweden

24,536

10.2

2,401

53,069

364,691

134

Tunisia

29,423

12.0

2,442

53,975

350,964

135

Austria

22,542

9.1

2,486

54,948

336,232

136

Mexico

334,336

131.6

2,541

56,163

317,818

137

France

167,642

65.6

2,556

56,495

312,796

138

Ukraine

112,418

43.2

2,603

57,534

297,060

139

Spain

121,760

46.7

2,606

57,600

296,055

140

Portugal

26,927

10.1

2,655

58,683

279,650

141

Paraguay

19,969

7.3

2,733

60,407

253,535

142

Russia

399,715

145.8

2,741

60,584

250,857

143

Colombia

142,861

51.5

2,773

61,291

240,143

144

Argentina

130,527

46.0

2,837

62,706

218,715

145

Armenia

8,751

3.0

2,945

65,093

182,556

146

Belgium

34,376

11.7

2,946

65,115

182,222

147

Moldova

12,124

4.0

3,021

66,773

157,111

148

Trinidad/Tobago

4,390

1.4

3,121

68,983

123,631

149

Italy

190,868

60.3

3,167

70,000

108,230

150

Poland

119,632

37.7

3,170

70,066

107,225

151

Brazil

704,320

215.4

3,271

72,298

73,410

152

UK

227,524

68.5

3,322

73,426

56,335

153

Chile

64,497

19.3

3,350

74,045

46,960

154

Slovenia

7,100

2.1

3,417

75,525

24,528

155

Latvia

6,388

1.8

3,455

76,365

11,806

156

USA

1,168,558

334.8

3,490

77,145

0

157

Romania

68,243

19.0

3,586

79,261

-32,054

158

Greece

37,089

10.3

3,595

79,460

-35,067

159

Lithuania

9,692

2.7

3,641

80,476

-50,468

160

Slovakia

21,167

5.5

3,877

85,693

-129,482

161

Czechia

42,811

10.7

3,987

88,124

-166,311

162

Georgia

17,101

4.0

4,309

95,241

-274,118

163

Croatia

18,276

4.1

4,502

99,507

-338,735

164

North Macedonia

9,677

2.1

4,649

102,756

-387,952

165

Bosnia/Herzegovina

16,352

3.2

5,032

111,221

-516,182

166

Hungary

48,881

9.6

5,088

112,459

-534,931

167

Bulgaria

38,437

6.8

5,616

124,130

-711,708

168

Peru

220,695

33.7

6,552

144,818

-1,025,086

 

 

 

War/Pandemic

Deaths

Population (Millions)

 Equals 1 Out of Every

Deaths/Million

Times 331 Million

Civil War

655,000

31.4

48

20,859.9

6,904,618

1918 Flue

675,000

104.5

155

6,459.3

2,138,038

Covid-19

1,168,558

           334.8

286.5

3,490.3

1,155,277

World War II

405,399

134.9

333

3,005.2

994,715

World War I

116,516

103.2

886

1,129.0

373,709

Vietnam War

58,209

165.9

2,850

350.9

116,137

Korean War

36,516

152.3

4,171

239.8

79,362

Iraq War

4,497

290.1

64,510

15.5

5,131

Afghanistan War

2,216

285.0

128,610

7.8

2,574

Gulf War

294

246.8

839,456

1.2

394

     

Sum of deaths in all 20th century wars =

623,647